Publication date: 2008-10-14
First published in: Energy
Authors: U. Bardi
Abstract:
The present paper reviews the reactions and the path of acceptance of the theory known as “peak oil.” The theory was proposed for the first time by M.K. Hubbert in the 1950s as a way to describe the production pattern of crude oil. According to Hubbert, the production curve is “bell shaped” and approximately symmetric. Hubbert’s theory was verified with a good approximation for the case of oil production in the United States that peaked in 1971 and is now being applied to the worldwide oil production. It is believed that the global peak of oil production (“peak oil”) will take place during the first decade of the 21st century, and some analysts believe that it has already occurred in 2005 or 2006. The theory and its consequences have unpleasant social and economic implications. The present paper is not aimed at assessing the peak date but offers a discussion on the factors that affect the acceptance and the diffusion of the concept of “peak oil” with experts and with the general public. The discussion is based on a subdivision of “four stages of acceptance,” loosely patterned after a sentence by Thomas Huxley.
Published in: Energy, Volume 34, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 323-326
Available from: ScienceDirect