For several years now, Members of ASPO have presented predictions showing, amongst other things, that the production of oil and gas in the UK sector of the North Sea will occupy no more than a few pages in the history books. It is now confirmed by the UK Department of Trade and Industry that recently published a plot showing that by the year 2020 it is more or less all over.
The UK and Ireland have built an infrastructure that requires natural gas in large quantities, which in the future they will need to import. For the coming years, it may be possible to import from Norway, but that requires Norway to step up its production, which means in turn that its resources will decline much faster. It risks being soon in the same situation as is the UK today.
In the long term, it is a high risk for Europe to rely on Norwegian natural gas. It would be better for Europe if Norway did not increase its production. That would keep the present export lines full for longer.
Kjell Aleklett
President of ASPO