For over 30 years, Wood Mackenzie has been providing analysis and strategic advice to the world’s leading energy companies. During this time they have developed a unique and unrivaled foundation of knowledge within the Energy Industry. They are especially known for their analysis of the oil industry. Now in January 2004, they have released a horizon report titled New thinking needed for exploration? The conclusions are with data since the mid-1990s:
- Only 3 out of 10 exploration wells have been successful.
- Excluding the giants of the deep-water zenith and Kashagan (1999 and 2000). The average discovery size has been around 50 million barrels. It should be compared with the daily production of 75 million barrels. Summing up the discoveries for 2003 it looks to be around 20 million barrels per day. We are indeed cutting a large piece of the reserved cake.
- The average value of discoveries has fallen. It is by the predictions of Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group.
- The average value of discoveries has fallen.
- The majors performed disproportionately well in 1999 and 2000 but less well before and since.
The summary of the report is that new field exploration has not replaced oil reserves.
One of the fascinating findings of the report is that the ten largest western majors during 2001 and 2002 lost money on research.
Wood Mackenzie: We believe that research cannot continue to be the main growth engine for the majors as it has in the past.
If we sum all the facts in this report, we can conclude that ASPO is on the right track.