The US Energy Information Administration said crude oil production from non-Opec countries would not be able to keep up with growing global demand in the next few years, forcing oil consuming nations to rely more on Opec for supplies.
In its long-term energy forecast, the EIA lowered its estimate of non-Opec oil production in 2010 to 51.8 million barrels per day, down 1.1 million bpd from last year’s forecast. For the same period, Opec oil output was cut by just 400,000 bpd to 37.4 million.
Meanwhile, world oil demand in 2010 will be 1.5 million bpd less than previously thought at 89.2 million bpd, due to higher oil prices, the EIA said.
China will account for almost half the lower oil consumption, with the country’s oil use cut 600,000 bpd to 8.8 million bpd, said Reuters.
The EIA said its forecast for India’s oil demand in 2010 was unchanged at 2.7 million bpd.
Overall, world energy consumption is forecast to grow 50% by 2030, with demand from developing countries rising 85% compared with a 19% increase in industrialized nations, the EIA said.