Publication date: 2008-09-13
First Published in Energy Policy
Authors: Feng Lianyong et al
Abstract:
To forecast future oil production, it is necessary to know the size of the reserves and use models. In this article, we use the typical Peak Oil models, the Hu–Chen–Zhang model usually called HCZ model and the Hubbert model, which have been used commonly for forecasting in China and the world, to forecast China’s oil Ultimate Recovery (URR). The former appears to give more realistic results based on an URR for China of 15.64 billion tons. The study leads to some suggestions for new policies to meet the unfolding energy situation.
Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 11, November 2008, Pages 4149-4153
Available from: ScienceDirect