The Lamp is published quarterly for ExxonMobil shareholders. Just now is the first issue for 2003, Vol. 85 No.1, available on the net. In an article named A revolutionary transformation the president of ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Jon Thompson, reflects on the dramatic changes in exploration technology over the past 40 years and the challenges that lie ahead in finding and producing future supplies of oil and gas.
The most interesting part for ASPO is:
Major challenges ahead
Our industry can certainly be proud of its past achievements. Yet the challenges we will face in the coming years will be every bit as great as those encountered in the past, due in part to ever-increasing global energy use.
For example, we estimate that world oil and gas production from existing fields is declining at an average rate of about 4 to 6 percent a year. To meet projected demand in 2015, the industry will have to add about 100 million oil-equivalent barrels a day of new production. That’s equal to about 80 percent of today’s production level. In other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today. Also, the cost associated with providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably more than what industry is now spending.
Equally daunting is the fact that many of the most promising prospects are far from major markets some in regions that lack even basic infrastructure. Others are in extreme climates, such as the Arctic, that present extraordinary technical challenges.”
We in ASPO know that it is harder to find oil then gas, but if we accept that it might be equally easy I can make the following conclusion:
Today we have a daily production of 75 million barrels per day. If we in 2015 need 80 percent of this as new production, we must open new oilfields that can give 60 Mbpd. To understand how impossible this is I like to make a comparison with the top production of 6 million barrels per day in the North Sea. The question is where we can find 10 new regions of the size of the North Sea? Maybe can the production in Iraq with enormous investments increase with 6 million barrels per day. I think that it would be a miracle if the rest of the countries in the Middle East can increase the production with 6 Mbpd. The rest of the world can find over 40 million barrels of the new production is just a dream.
The Uppsala Depletion Study Group has estimated the decline to be 2,5 percent in 2015. I think that President Thompson with the cryptic statement by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today, in reality, support our model.
