RESOURCE BASED PRODUCTION FORECAST | |||||||||||
Revised 2004 May 15 | |||||||||||
Regular Oil by Country, 2000 O&GJ | |||||||||||
Mb/d | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2020 | 2050 | ||||||
1 | Russia | 6.33 | 9.06 | 10.00 | 4.84 | 0.55 | |||||
2 | Saudi Arabia | 8.00 | 8.44 | 8.44 | 7.18 | 3.59 | |||||
3 | Iran | 3.68 | 3.73 | 3.41 | 2.72 | 1.39 | |||||
4 | US-48 | 4.45 | 3.57 | 2.61 | 1.40 | 0.22 | |||||
5 | China | 3.24 | 3.15 | 2.57 | 1.72 | 0.51 | |||||
6 | Mexico | 3.01 | 3.04 | 2.37 | 1.43 | 0.32 | |||||
7 | Norway | 3.21 | 2.62 | 1.82 | 0.87 | 0.10 | |||||
8 | Nigeria | 2.03 | 2.34 | 2.14 | 1.51 | 0.53 | |||||
9 | Iraq | 2.57 | 2.67 | 2.93 | 2.93 | 1.93 | |||||
10 | Kuwait | 1.77 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.32 | |||||
11 | Abu Dhabi | 1.90 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 0.95 | |||||
12 | UK | 2.51 | 1.84 | 1.34 | 0.71 | 0.10 | |||||
13 | Venezuela | 2.57 | 1.66 | 1.54 | 1.32 | 0.84 | |||||
14 | Libya | 1.41 | 1.51 | 1.93 | 1.61 | 0.75 | |||||
15 | Algeria | 0.81 | 1.27 | 1.21 | 0.85 | 0.29 | |||||
16 | Kazakhstan | 0.68 | 0.98 | 1.25 | 1.81 | 1.33 | |||||
17 | Canada | 1.08 | 0.96 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.05 | |||||
18 | Indonesia | 1.27 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.21 | |||||
19 | Oman | 0.93 | 0.76 | 0.62 | 0.41 | 0.12 | |||||
20 | Malaysia | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.51 | 0.27 | 0.04 | |||||
21 | Azerbaijan | 0.28 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.25 | |||||
22 | Egypt | 0.81 | 0.66 | 0.47 | 0.25 | 0.03 | |||||
23 | Qatar | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.06 | |||||
24 | India | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 0.11 | |||||
25 | Argentina | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 0.02 | |||||
26 | N. Zone | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 0.40 | 0.17 | |||||
27 | Angola | 0.74 | 0.60 | 0.48 | 0.31 | 0.08 | |||||
28 | Colombia | 0.69 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 0.06 | |||||
29 | Australia | 0.70 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 0.04 | |||||
30 | Syria | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.18 | 0.01 | |||||
31 | Brazil | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.01 | |||||
32 | Ecuador | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.08 | |||||
33 | Denmark | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.01 | |||||
34 | Yemen | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.01 | |||||
35 | Vietnam | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.14 | 0.02 | |||||
36 | Dubai | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.01 | |||||
37 | Chad | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.01 | |||||
38 | Sudan | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.01 | |||||
39 | Gabon | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.02 | |||||
40 | Congo | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.01 | |||||
41 | Turkmenistan | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.06 | |||||
42 | Brunei | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.01 | |||||
43 | Thailand | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.01 | |||||
44 | Uzbekistan | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.04 | |||||
45 | Trinidad | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.02 | |||||
46 | Romania | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.05 | |||||
47 | Italy | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.02 | |||||
48 | Peru | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.02 | |||||
49 | Ukraine | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.03 | |||||
50 | Germany | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.01 | |||||
51 | Tunisia | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.02 | |||||
52 | Cameroon | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.00 | |||||
53 | Pakistan | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | |||||
54 | Papua | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | |||||
55 | Netherlands | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | |||||
56 | Turkey | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | |||||
57 | Sharjah | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.00 | |||||
58 | Bolivia | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.02 | |||||
59 | Bahrain | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | |||||
60 | Hungary | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | |||||
61 | France | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | |||||
62 | Croatia | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | |||||
63 | Austria | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | |||||
64 | Chile | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||
65 | Albania | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | |||||
Regular Oil by Region ( Mb/d ) | |||||||||||
2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2020 | 2050 | |||||||
ME Gulf | 18.5 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 9 | ||||||
Eurasia | 11.1 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 3 | ||||||
N.America | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | ||||||
L.America | 8.0 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | ||||||
Africa | 6.7 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | ||||||
Europe | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | ||||||
Far East | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | ||||||
ME Other | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | ||||||
Other | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | ||||||
Unforeseen | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 | |||||||
Non-MEGulf | 45 | 45 | 40 | 25 | 9 | ||||||
MEGulf Share | 29% | 30% | 33% | 41% | 51% | ||||||
WORLD | 64 | 65 | 60 | 42 | 19 | ||||||
Excl. bitumen, heavy, deepwater, polar, NGL | |||||||||||
Other Liquid Hydrocarbons | |||||||||||
Oil | Mb/d | Mb/d | Mb/d | Mb/d | Mb/d | ||||||
Heavy Oils (#1) | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 5.7 | ||||||
Canada | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | ||||||
Venezuela I | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | ||||||
Venezuela II | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | ||||||
Other | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | ||||||
Deepwater (#2) | 1.3 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 0.1 | ||||||
G. Mexico | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0 | ||||||
Brazil | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0 | ||||||
Angola | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0 | ||||||
Nigeria | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0 | ||||||
Other | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | ||||||
Polar | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | ||||||
Alaska | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | ||||||
Other | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | ||||||
Other (#3) | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | ||||||
Subtotal | 4 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 7 | ||||||
| |||||||||||
Gas & Gas Liquids | (Gas at 6cf=1boe) | ||||||||||
Gas | 39 | 45 | 53 | 59 | 36 | ||||||
Non-con gas | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | ||||||
Subtotal | 41 | 47 | 55 | 64 | 46 | ||||||
Gas Liquids | |||||||||||
NGL (#4) | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 6 | ||||||
All Hydrocarbons | |||||||||||
Gas | 41 | 47 | 55 | 64 | 46 | ||||||
Liquids | 74 | 82 | 82 | 64 | 33 | ||||||
Processing Gain | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | ||||||
Total | 116 | 131 | 139 | 129 | 79 | ||||||
Balance | with 1.5% annual demand growth | ||||||||||
Liquids Mb/d | |||||||||||
Supply | 75 | 84 | 84 | 65 | 33 | ||||||
Demand | 75 | 81 | 87 | 101 | 158 | ||||||
Balance | 0 | 3 | -3 | -36 | -125 | ||||||
NOTES | |||||||||||
Regular Oil includes condensate (in oilfields) | |||||||||||
Production number for 2000, Oil&Gas Journal | |||||||||||
(#1) Bitumen, Extra-Heavy Oil, Heavy Oil (<17.5) | |||||||||||
(#2) Oil in water depth of more than 500m | |||||||||||
(#3) Oil from oil-shales, coal | |||||||||||
(#4) Liquids from Natural Gas plants & gasfields | |||||||||||
Base Case Scenario assumes negligible spare | |||||||||||
capacity with decline at current or midpoint depletion rate | |||||||||||
ME-Gulf = A.Dhabi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, NZ, S.Arabia | |||||||||||
Eurasia= FSU, E.Europe & China | |||||||||||
N.America = USA & Canada | |||||||||||
Venezuela I = ordinary heavy | |||||||||||
Venezuela II = 4 Extra-Heavy oil projects | |||||||||||
Year 2000 from Oil&Gas Journal | |||||||||||