| RESOURCE BASED PRODUCTION FORECAST | |
| Revised 2004 May 15 | | | | |
| Regular Oil by Country, 2000 O&GJ |
| Mb/d | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2020 | 2050 |
| 1 | Russia | 6.33 | 9.06 | 10.00 | 4.84 | 0.55 |
| 2 | Saudi Arabia | 8.00 | 8.44 | 8.44 | 7.18 | 3.59 |
| 3 | Iran | 3.68 | 3.73 | 3.41 | 2.72 | 1.39 |
| 4 | US-48 | 4.45 | 3.57 | 2.61 | 1.40 | 0.22 |
| 5 | China | 3.24 | 3.15 | 2.57 | 1.72 | 0.51 |
| 6 | Mexico | 3.01 | 3.04 | 2.37 | 1.43 | 0.32 |
| 7 | Norway | 3.21 | 2.62 | 1.82 | 0.87 | 0.10 |
| 8 | Nigeria | 2.03 | 2.34 | 2.14 | 1.51 | 0.53 |
| 9 | Iraq | 2.57 | 2.67 | 2.93 | 2.93 | 1.93 |
| 10 | Kuwait | 1.77 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.32 |
| 11 | Abu Dhabi | 1.90 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 0.95 |
| 12 | UK | 2.51 | 1.84 | 1.34 | 0.71 | 0.10 |
| 13 | Venezuela | 2.57 | 1.66 | 1.54 | 1.32 | 0.84 |
| 14 | Libya | 1.41 | 1.51 | 1.93 | 1.61 | 0.75 |
| 15 | Algeria | 0.81 | 1.27 | 1.21 | 0.85 | 0.29 |
| 16 | Kazakhstan | 0.68 | 0.98 | 1.25 | 1.81 | 1.33 |
| 17 | Canada | 1.08 | 0.96 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.05 |
| 18 | Indonesia | 1.27 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.21 |
| 19 | Oman | 0.93 | 0.76 | 0.62 | 0.41 | 0.12 |
| 20 | Malaysia | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.51 | 0.27 | 0.04 |
| 21 | Azerbaijan | 0.28 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| 22 | Egypt | 0.81 | 0.66 | 0.47 | 0.25 | 0.03 |
| 23 | Qatar | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.06 |
| 24 | India | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 0.11 |
| 25 | Argentina | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 0.02 |
| 26 | N. Zone | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 0.40 | 0.17 |
| 27 | Angola | 0.74 | 0.60 | 0.48 | 0.31 | 0.08 |
| 28 | Colombia | 0.69 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 0.06 |
| 29 | Australia | 0.70 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| 30 | Syria | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.18 | 0.01 |
| 31 | Brazil | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.01 |
| 32 | Ecuador | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| 33 | Denmark | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| 34 | Yemen | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| 35 | Vietnam | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| 36 | Dubai | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 37 | Chad | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.01 |
| 38 | Sudan | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| 39 | Gabon | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| 40 | Congo | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| 41 | Turkmenistan | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| 42 | Brunei | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| 43 | Thailand | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| 44 | Uzbekistan | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| 45 | Trinidad | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| 46 | Romania | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| 47 | Italy | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| 48 | Peru | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| 49 | Ukraine | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| 50 | Germany | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| 51 | Tunisia | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| 52 | Cameroon | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| 53 | Pakistan | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| 54 | Papua | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| 55 | Netherlands | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| 56 | Turkey | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| 57 | Sharjah | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| 58 | Bolivia | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| 59 | Bahrain | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 60 | Hungary | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| 61 | France | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 62 | Croatia | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| 63 | Austria | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 64 | Chile | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 65 | Albania | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| | | | | | |
| Regular Oil by Region ( Mb/d )
| |
| | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2020 | 2050 |
| ME Gulf | 18.5 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 9 |
| Eurasia | 11.1 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 3 |
| N.America | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| L.America | 8.0 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| Africa | 6.7 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 |
| Europe | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Far East | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| ME Other | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| Other | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Unforeseen | | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 |
| Non-MEGulf | 45 | 45 | 40 | 25 | 9 |
| MEGulf Share | 29% | 30% | 33% | 41% | 51% |
| WORLD | 64 | 65 | 60 | 42 | 19 |
| Excl. bitumen, heavy, deepwater, polar, NGL | | |
| | | | | | |
| Other Liquid Hydrocarbons | |
| Oil | Mb/d | Mb/d | Mb/d | Mb/d | Mb/d |
| Heavy Oils (#1) | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 5.7 |
| Canada | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| Venezuela I | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Venezuela II | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Other | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Deepwater (#2) | 1.3 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 0.1 |
| G. Mexico | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Brazil | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Angola | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Nigeria | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Other | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| Polar | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| Alaska | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Other | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Other (#3) | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Subtotal | 4 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 7 |
| | | | | | |
| Gas & Gas Liquids | (Gas at 6cf=1boe) | |
| Gas | 39 | 45 | 53 | 59 | 36 |
| Non-con gas | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| Subtotal | 41 | 47 | 55 | 64 | 46 |
| Gas Liquids | | | | | |
| NGL (#4) | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| All Hydrocarbons | | | | |
| Gas | 41 | 47 | 55 | 64 | 46 |
| Liquids | 74 | 82 | 82 | 64 | 33 |
| Processing Gain | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Total | 116 | 131 | 139 | 129 | 79 |
| Balance | with 1.5% annual demand growth | | | | |
| Liquids Mb/d | | | | | |
| Supply | 75 | 84 | 84 | 65 | 33 |
| Demand | 75 | 81 | 87 | 101 | 158 |
| Balance | 0 | 3 | -3 | -36 | -125 |
| | | | | | |
| NOTES | | | | | |
| Regular Oil includes condensate (in oilfields) | | |
| Production number for 2000, Oil&Gas Journal | | |
| (#1) Bitumen, Extra-Heavy Oil, Heavy Oil (<17.5) | |
| (#2) Oil in water depth of more than 500m | | |
| (#3) Oil from oil-shales, coal | | | |
| (#4) Liquids from Natural Gas plants & gasfields | |
| Base Case Scenario assumes negligible spare | |
| capacity with decline at current or midpoint depletion rate | |
| | | | | | |
| ME-Gulf = A.Dhabi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, NZ, S.Arabia | |
| Eurasia= FSU, E.Europe & China | | | |
| N.America = USA & Canada | | | |
| Venezuela I = ordinary heavy | | | |
| Venezuela II = 4 Extra-Heavy oil projects | | |
| Year 2000 from Oil&Gas Journal | | | |
| | | | | | |